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General Notes:

Welcome to a brand new week traders! I did a full analysis of the latest CFTC COT Report for you and you can find it down below! I will be doing a lot of focusing on my trade plan this week and Forex testing my strategy. I encourage you to do the same. Practice makes a winning trader and that's pretty much about it. I recommend that any of you who are serious about learning Supply and Demand from someone I consider to be the best in the business, Alfonso Moreno, sign up at www.set-and-forget.com and join me and many others on our journey to learn how the market really moves. Take a look at my updated charts below for a sample of how we are killing it in the community! You can have it all if you trade like the institutions do. Money, freedom, the ability to travel anywhere at any time, nice homes and fast cars. All it takes is dedication and hard work!  Don't you just love trading? You can be anywhere in the world and still be able to make $$$, but only if you trade alongside the institutions with Supply & Demand! The inspirational shots to the left are courtesy of @fiiyat on Instagram. Great profile you should follow! 

Market Movers:

SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONES

Take note of the GREEN demand zones and RED supply zones mapped out below. These are the areas of interest for me because this is where there is a great deal of demand to fill buy orders and supply to fill sell orders from the institutions. 
SHADED GREEN ZONES = Strong Buy Zones
SHADED RED ZONES = Strong Sell Zones

$USD OVERVIEW (THE BIG PICTURE)
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH 

$USD OVERVIEW (DAILY)

US DOLLAR => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.

Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH

Notes: We see that the Hedge Funds increased their long positions last week from 63k to 70k after D demand was hit at the 95.50 area. Short positions were added as well but in the process of filling these orders, the overall position allocation went from 93% long to 89% and 7% short to 11%. So a slight favouring of the short side but overall bullish sentiment.

AUDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.

Perception of Monetary Standing: NEUTRAL

Notes: The Hedge Funds added to their short positions from 88k to 93k short, while reducing their long exposure. Overall short exposure now sits at 64% in replacement of the 62% the previous week. As mentioned in last weeks post, this doesn't come as a surprise as there wasn't any decent demand to keep prices up any longer. Still holding my AUDUSD short position from the H4 SZ short I posted in the community. Will be watching the reaction of price from the WK DZ @ .7250 as it is both badly formed and also inherited, but may cause a bounce.

USDCAD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.

Perception of Monetary Standing: NEUTRAL

Notes: The Hedge Funds are again adding heavily to their long from 78k to 85k last week, they also added small to their short positions. Overall exposure remains the same. All this action from the "Big Boys" caused price to break higher past WK and MN supply. USD strength and the Canadian Interest rate dropping helped this move considerably. I am watching a MN CP SZ at 1.3120 for a reaction from it to be able to open a long position. We know that the rules say that CP's against the trend usually do not hold, so this particular situation plays perfectly to jump on the trend.

USDCHF => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.

Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH

Notes: The Hedge Funds doubled their long positions on the Franc from 3,417 to 6,464. Shorts increased as well but overall sentiment is still bearish with short exposure dropping from 66% to 60%. Price is currently testing WK supply for the second time. If USD strength continues, it's safe to believe the WK SZ will break. Will be keeping an eye on the price action this week.

EURUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.

Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH

Notes: The Hedge Funds added to their longs from 62k to 65k last week and their shorts from 170k to 178k while still keeping their overall exposure to the short side at 73%. This comes as we saw price come into tested WK demand and therefore filling some of the long orders. As mentioned, total exposure sits at the same figures and my guess is that the "Big Boys" are waiting for this weeks Fed Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday. I opened a short position on the EURUSD at a low odds D SZ against a WK DZ in control, smaller position, thinking that the WK bearish engulfing and current USD price action will help break the WK DZ. It's a risky play and we'll see what happens this week.

GBPUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.

Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH

Notes: The Hedge Funds increased their longs from 32k to 35k and increased their shorts from 88k to 91k. Overall long exposure shifted from 36% the previous week to 38% last week. Still the consensus is price action favours the downside with net positions sitting at -21,468. One important thing to mention though is that the perception of monetary standing is starting to become more bullish and may mean things may start to reverse in terms of the long positions being held by the institutions. Will be watching this pair closely to see how it plays out this week and more importantly, how it reacts to the FOMC on Wednesday.

USDJPY => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.

Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH

Notes: The biggest change in postions this past week saw the Hedge Funds adding heavily to their longs from 96k to 113k and thier shorts from 49k to 50k. This comes as we saw price react from WK and MN demand causing price to rocket upwards. As Alfonso has mentioned in this weeks analysis video, price is now reacting from a tested WK bearics engulfing candle, but MN DZ in currently in control. Lets see how price plays out on Wednesday.

NZDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.

Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH

Notes: The Hedge Funds decreased both longs and shorts last week with overall long exposure being 31% and short exposure at 69% as we saw price react from a D SZ nested with a WK bearish engulfing candle. I opened a short from the D SZ as the WK chart suggests a possible further move down toward the .64's is possible without the help of any USD strength which, I believe if happens, will play a significant role is helping price drop.

So as mentioned, this week will have some major volatility inducing data being released on Wednesday with the Rate Decision and Thursday with GDP. The COT Report suggests the Hedge Funds are betting on the long side for the USD but we still have to clear all the supply we can see clearly on the daily and weekly charts. I am planning to watch price action closely leading up until Wednesday and wait for the data to be released before committing to any more positions. I want to see what the Hedge funds will do and once a clearer picture is laid out with some removal of S/D zones, then I will trade in the direction of the clear trend.

I hope you found this report useful leading into this weeks session of trading and until next time..... trade well!

AUDUSD -> Commitmen Of Traders Report: Institutional traders
are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing:  NUETRAL 

Notes:
THE SETUP: -> 

Video Link ==>

$USDCAD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders
are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes:

THE SETUP: 

Video Link ==> 

$USDCHF -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH

Notes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and down trend on the daily chart. 
THE SETUP:

Video Link ==> 

$EURUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH

Notes: 
THE SETUP: 
Video Link ==>

$GBPUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH

Notes:
THE SETUP: 

Video Link ==> 

$USDJPY -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes:
THE SETUP: 

Video Link ==> 

$NZDUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH 

Notes:
THE SETUP: 
Video Link ==> 

Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart. Called the bounce @ 1170 to a tee. RSI on the MN and WK chart suggest more upside towards the 1280's.
THE SETUP: 

Video Link ==> 

Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and up on the daily chart. Daily WOW playing out with upside towards 19's, but first the reaction from WK supply.
THE SETUP: 

Video Link ==> 

Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased.

Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and up on the daily chart. A little more push up it seems until hitting MN supply and descending TL so expecting more downside from there.

THE SETUP: 

Video Link ==> 

Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.

Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, up on the weekly and up on the daily chart. WK chart hitting a flip zone so may drop to the 56's, if not head up towards the 66's.

THE SETUP: 

Video Link ==> 

Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased.

Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and up on the daily chart. MN descending TL about to be hit while WK supply being tested a second time with D supply up ahead.

THE SETUP: 

Video Link ==> 

$NZDUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH 

Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, down on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
*WK SZ and WK TL in control

THE SETUP: LONG @ 0.7365, SL @ 0.7306, TP - technical stop

Video Link ==> 
May 18 (10:15pm) -> Trade Activated.
May 20 (9:30am) -> Trade Closed early for small loss.
Trade Review -> https://www.tradebench.com/share_trade/c09da628ffcf32f27aaae7ac4f6a29f1