SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONES
Take note of the GREEN demand zones and RED supply zones mapped out below. These are the areas of interest for me because this is where there is a great deal of demand to fill buy orders and supply to fill sell orders from the institutions. SHADED GREEN ZONES = Strong Buy Zones
SHADED RED ZONES = Strong Sell Zones
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
--> $USD is hitting weekly demand so might see a bounce up before a move back down.
--> US Dollar hitting some daily/weekly demand and might see a bounce to the upside.
US DOLLAR => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Notes: The hedge funds closed about 10k of their long positions when price hit the WK SZ and pretty much left their shorts position alone.
AUDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Aussie sees a decrease of the short positions of the hedge funds and total exposure is sitting at 50% for both the long and short side, so no real strong bias on either side at this point.
USDCAD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: The Loonie sits pretty much at the same spot this past week, with no real changes in positions as we see price continue to consolidate.
USDCHF => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: This pairs only real changes came from the commercials, with a big decrease in exposure of short positions from 11k to 3k, and long positions from 16k to 4K. Not sure why the sudden reductions but on the charts we are hitting a tested Daily WOW long which just might break to the downside, although the hedge funds covered some of their short positions last week so a bounce could also happen.
EURUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: Looks like the hedge funds continue to cover their shorts from 190k positions to 172k positions last week. The net change between the commercials and non-commercials is a whopping 102,361 contracts to the bullish side. So we are definitely seeing a shift beginning here. Two weeks ago the position allocation looked like 22% of positions were short and 78% were long, this past week looked like 32% long and 68% short. Just in the beginning of June the figures were 19% long and 81% short. Still a bearish bias for now, but moves are being made.
GBPUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL => HAWKISH
Notes: Not much changed with the Pound the last week. Net changes between all players was a bias to the long side with 7,736 contracts. Still a short bias though with 64% of positions to the down side.
USDJPY => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: So as the Yen hit some WK supply, the COT Report shows us that there was indeed some supply at the tested zone as we see a reduction in long positions from 158k to 145k. Shorts positions also increased by 22k so the drop was being taken advantage of to make a profit on the drop. Overall, bearish consensus this past week with a net position change of 79k to the down side. Still a heavy bias to the long side with 69% of the Yen holdings, long.
NZDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Long and short positions have been added to the Kiwi again, but the stance becoming a bit more neutral with positions now standing at 40% long and 60% short vs. last weeks 33% long and 67% short. Interest rates dropped and we see more neutral holdings while approaching MN demand as I mentioned last week.... very interesting. Will be keeping an eye on this for a potential reversal soon.
In conclusion, the hedge funds are making moves on the Euro, closing short positions and adding long. The Pound didn't really reveal anything new to us as price created a new WK uptrend. Lots of profit taking these past couple weeks, as previously mentioned, but now new opportunities present themselves with the Pound for going long and possibly the Yen for a pull-back and possible entry point to continue the trend to the upside. Otherwise, the Kiwi could change trend soon and the US Dollar might continue it's drop for a possible entry to the long side as well. Interesting time for the majors right now and the COT Report continues to show us exactly what the big players are up too. Things will continue to become clearer during this week as we may see continuations of the moves of last!
I'll be watching closely, enjoy the weekend!
Kevin
Notes: The hedge funds closed about 10k of their long positions when price hit the WK SZ and pretty much left their shorts position alone.
AUDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Aussie sees a decrease of the short positions of the hedge funds and total exposure is sitting at 50% for both the long and short side, so no real strong bias on either side at this point.
USDCAD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: The Loonie sits pretty much at the same spot this past week, with no real changes in positions as we see price continue to consolidate.
USDCHF => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: This pairs only real changes came from the commercials, with a big decrease in exposure of short positions from 11k to 3k, and long positions from 16k to 4K. Not sure why the sudden reductions but on the charts we are hitting a tested Daily WOW long which just might break to the downside, although the hedge funds covered some of their short positions last week so a bounce could also happen.
EURUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: Looks like the hedge funds continue to cover their shorts from 190k positions to 172k positions last week. The net change between the commercials and non-commercials is a whopping 102,361 contracts to the bullish side. So we are definitely seeing a shift beginning here. Two weeks ago the position allocation looked like 22% of positions were short and 78% were long, this past week looked like 32% long and 68% short. Just in the beginning of June the figures were 19% long and 81% short. Still a bearish bias for now, but moves are being made.
GBPUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL => HAWKISH
Notes: Not much changed with the Pound the last week. Net changes between all players was a bias to the long side with 7,736 contracts. Still a short bias though with 64% of positions to the down side.
USDJPY => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: So as the Yen hit some WK supply, the COT Report shows us that there was indeed some supply at the tested zone as we see a reduction in long positions from 158k to 145k. Shorts positions also increased by 22k so the drop was being taken advantage of to make a profit on the drop. Overall, bearish consensus this past week with a net position change of 79k to the down side. Still a heavy bias to the long side with 69% of the Yen holdings, long.
NZDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Long and short positions have been added to the Kiwi again, but the stance becoming a bit more neutral with positions now standing at 40% long and 60% short vs. last weeks 33% long and 67% short. Interest rates dropped and we see more neutral holdings while approaching MN demand as I mentioned last week.... very interesting. Will be keeping an eye on this for a potential reversal soon.
In conclusion, the hedge funds are making moves on the Euro, closing short positions and adding long. The Pound didn't really reveal anything new to us as price created a new WK uptrend. Lots of profit taking these past couple weeks, as previously mentioned, but now new opportunities present themselves with the Pound for going long and possibly the Yen for a pull-back and possible entry point to continue the trend to the upside. Otherwise, the Kiwi could change trend soon and the US Dollar might continue it's drop for a possible entry to the long side as well. Interesting time for the majors right now and the COT Report continues to show us exactly what the big players are up too. Things will continue to become clearer during this week as we may see continuations of the moves of last!
I'll be watching closely, enjoy the weekend!
Kevin
AUDUSD -> Commitmen Of Traders Report: Institutional traders
are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and bullish consolidation on the daily chart.
THE SETUP: ->
Video Link ==>
$USDCAD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders
are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP: ->
$USDCAD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional tradersare SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
$USDCHF -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and down trend on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
THE SETUP:
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and bullish consolidation on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Notes: Trend is bearish consolidation on the monthly, up on the weekly and up on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
THE SETUP:
$USDJPY -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISHNotes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and bullish consolidation on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, down on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==> 
$GBPNZD ->
Notes: Trend is up on all time frames so looking for a pull-back into either 240 or daily demand. I prefer the daily demand zone.
THE SETUP (May 12): LONG @ 2.0677, SL @ 2.0500, TP - technical stop
Video Link ==> 
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart. Called the bounce @ 1170 to a tee. RSI on the MN and WK chart suggest more upside towards the 1280's.
THE SETUP:
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and up on the daily chart. A little more push up it seems until hitting MN supply and descending TL so expecting more downside from there.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, up on the weekly and up on the daily chart. WK chart hitting a flip zone so may drop to the 56's, if not head up towards the 66's.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and up on the daily chart. MN descending TL about to be hit while WK supply being tested a second time with D supply up ahead.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, down on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
*WK SZ and WK TL in control
*WK SZ and WK TL in control
THE SETUP: LONG @ 0.7365, SL @ 0.7306, TP - technical stop
Video Link ==>
May 18 (10:15pm) -> Trade Activated.
May 20 (9:30am) -> Trade Closed early for small loss.
Trade Review -> https://www.tradebench.com/share_trade/c09da628ffcf32f27aaae7ac4f6a29f1
May 18 (10:15pm) -> Trade Activated.
May 20 (9:30am) -> Trade Closed early for small loss.
Trade Review -> https://www.tradebench.com/share_trade/c09da628ffcf32f27aaae7ac4f6a29f1
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