SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONES
Take note of the GREEN demand zones and RED supply zones mapped out below. These are the areas of interest for me because this is where there is a great deal of demand to fill buy orders and supply to fill sell orders from the institutions. SHADED GREEN ZONES = Strong Buy Zones
SHADED RED ZONES = Strong Sell Zones
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
--> $USD is hitting weekly demand so might see a bounce up before a move back down.
--> US Dollar hitting some daily/weekly demand and might see a bounce to the upside.
US DOLLAR => COT
REPORT: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Notes: The positions of the big guys during this time of consolidation have become slightly more bullish after we witnessed some profit taking, but nothing drastic.
AUDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Bias is still to the short side here as the hedge funds increased their short positions again. Nothing drastic this time, as when price hit the WK SZ. It’s also important to remember that the positions being held long by the hedge funds consist of 45% of their overall Aussie holdings. No strong force pushing in either direction at this point.
USDCAD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: After seeing a reverse in a short to long bias last week by the institutions speculating, this week’s data continues to show us the bullishness on this pair with long positions being added from 31,120 last week to 34,749 contracts. While also seeing the short positions being covered from 30,095 last week to 21,004 contracts this week. So as we see price hit a WK SZ and dropping slightly, we have to consider this long bias from the hedge funds as well.
USDCHF => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: This pair seems to still sit on the bearish team for now with net short positions of 10,129 contracts. Like the USDCAD, we have just hit some WK supply with 80% of the positions being held by the hedge funds to the short side.
EURUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: We are seeing a significant decrease in short positions once again on the EURUSD. From 264,454 contracts short last week to only 243,260 this week, long positions have only seen an increase of about 3k. Shorts continue to be covered here and have been continually being reduced since March. We can confirm that the consolidation we are seeing on the EURUSD is indeed distribution of the massive short positions the big boys held all throughout last year and the beginning of this year. So higher odds for the Euro at this point is to sit this out until the positions are covered and a direction is decided upon.
GBPUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Bias is still to the short side on this pair with 66% of positions to the downside. Overall position exposure of the hedge funds is 90,305 contracts as opposed to the Euro at 243,260 so although bias is to the short side it isn’t with the greatest of conviction.
USDJPY => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: The big boys increased their long positions once again from 132k to 158k long. Overall positions of the hedge funds long are 79%, up from 74% last week. Strong up trend and bullish consensus here. High probability trades to the long side.
NZDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Long and short positions have been added to the Kiwi with 67% of positions held for the short side. Slight bearish pressure here and with the interest rate cut we are more likely to see a further drop although we must be careful with MN Demand just below. The fact that only 67% of positions are to the short side, we could see a quick reversal when price gets to those demand areas.
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Notes: The positions of the big guys during this time of consolidation have become slightly more bullish after we witnessed some profit taking, but nothing drastic.
AUDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Bias is still to the short side here as the hedge funds increased their short positions again. Nothing drastic this time, as when price hit the WK SZ. It’s also important to remember that the positions being held long by the hedge funds consist of 45% of their overall Aussie holdings. No strong force pushing in either direction at this point.
USDCAD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: After seeing a reverse in a short to long bias last week by the institutions speculating, this week’s data continues to show us the bullishness on this pair with long positions being added from 31,120 last week to 34,749 contracts. While also seeing the short positions being covered from 30,095 last week to 21,004 contracts this week. So as we see price hit a WK SZ and dropping slightly, we have to consider this long bias from the hedge funds as well.
USDCHF => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: This pair seems to still sit on the bearish team for now with net short positions of 10,129 contracts. Like the USDCAD, we have just hit some WK supply with 80% of the positions being held by the hedge funds to the short side.
EURUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: We are seeing a significant decrease in short positions once again on the EURUSD. From 264,454 contracts short last week to only 243,260 this week, long positions have only seen an increase of about 3k. Shorts continue to be covered here and have been continually being reduced since March. We can confirm that the consolidation we are seeing on the EURUSD is indeed distribution of the massive short positions the big boys held all throughout last year and the beginning of this year. So higher odds for the Euro at this point is to sit this out until the positions are covered and a direction is decided upon.
GBPUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Bias is still to the short side on this pair with 66% of positions to the downside. Overall position exposure of the hedge funds is 90,305 contracts as opposed to the Euro at 243,260 so although bias is to the short side it isn’t with the greatest of conviction.
USDJPY => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: The big boys increased their long positions once again from 132k to 158k long. Overall positions of the hedge funds long are 79%, up from 74% last week. Strong up trend and bullish consensus here. High probability trades to the long side.
NZDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Long and short positions have been added to the Kiwi with 67% of positions held for the short side. Slight bearish pressure here and with the interest rate cut we are more likely to see a further drop although we must be careful with MN Demand just below. The fact that only 67% of positions are to the short side, we could see a quick reversal when price gets to those demand areas.
AUDUSD -> Commitmen Of Traders Report: Institutional traders
are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and bullish consolidation on the daily chart.
THE SETUP: ->
Video Link ==>
$USDCAD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders
are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP: ->
$USDCAD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional tradersare SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
$USDCHF -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and down trend on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
THE SETUP:
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and bullish consolidation on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Notes: Trend is bearish consolidation on the monthly, up on the weekly and up on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
THE SETUP:
$USDJPY -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISHNotes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and bullish consolidation on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, down on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==> 
$GBPNZD ->
Notes: Trend is up on all time frames so looking for a pull-back into either 240 or daily demand. I prefer the daily demand zone.
THE SETUP (May 12): LONG @ 2.0677, SL @ 2.0500, TP - technical stop
Video Link ==> 
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart. Called the bounce @ 1170 to a tee. RSI on the MN and WK chart suggest more upside towards the 1280's.
THE SETUP:
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and up on the daily chart. A little more push up it seems until hitting MN supply and descending TL so expecting more downside from there.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, up on the weekly and up on the daily chart. WK chart hitting a flip zone so may drop to the 56's, if not head up towards the 66's.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and up on the daily chart. MN descending TL about to be hit while WK supply being tested a second time with D supply up ahead.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, down on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
*WK SZ and WK TL in control
*WK SZ and WK TL in control
THE SETUP: LONG @ 0.7365, SL @ 0.7306, TP - technical stop
Video Link ==>
May 18 (10:15pm) -> Trade Activated.
May 20 (9:30am) -> Trade Closed early for small loss.
Trade Review -> https://www.tradebench.com/share_trade/c09da628ffcf32f27aaae7ac4f6a29f1
May 18 (10:15pm) -> Trade Activated.
May 20 (9:30am) -> Trade Closed early for small loss.
Trade Review -> https://www.tradebench.com/share_trade/c09da628ffcf32f27aaae7ac4f6a29f1
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