General Notes:
It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas! Posted the latest Institutional Supply & Demand video below. FOMC out on Wednesday and with that being said, the big question is does the $USD head upward again? Well, I believe the charts are saying that it is time to head downwards. Will be interesting to see how the pairs move leading up to the 2pm FOMC tomorrow. So we'll see. Also the CFTC COT Report is out. Valuable lessons learned regarding the Supply & Demand zones and RSI. Check out the video to learn the valuable lessons HERE! The CFTC COT Report came out on Friday and the results are in. Institutions increased their $GBPUSD positions before the big drop, hence the drop. Increased their long $USDJPY positions, lightened up on their $EURUSD shorts and everything else pretty much stayed the same. Take a look at the currency sections below for the breakdown. I've included last weeks data for a comparison.I started my YouTube channel, where I will be posting my thoughts and analysis on the FOREX currency pairs. No, it's not another analysis video, using regular technical analysis thats wrong more often than not, this is Supply & Demand baby, this is where the institutions have Buy and Sell orders. This is the real deal technical analysis!
Watch the latest INSTITUTIONAL SUPPLY & DEMAND Outlook Videos!
Click here for the Week Ahead -> Nov 16 - 21, 2014 Market Movers
The Magic Trading Portfolio's Position Sizing:
Currencies --> Risking only $125 per trade. As my risk tolerance gets larger, I will slowly start increasing my risk amount. You can follow, learn & PROFIT from The Magic Portfolio by following the members only @MagicAlerts on Twitter. I'll be sharing my thoughts on the markets, providing video lessons on trading Supply & Demand and also be sharing with followers some very exclusive stuff. You'll have to follow to find out what. I am mapping out Institutional Demand & Supply. Do your own DD and use the info whatever way you see fit. Welcome to The Magic Trading Portfolio!
If there is any one thing that has added more to my success than anything else, it is understanding how important it is to time the market with your trades. The key to my strategy is to time the $USD's GREEN and RED zones with the GREEN and RED zones from the setups. If the US Dollar and the $USDCAD, $USDCHF or $USDJPY are both entering their same coloured zones at around the same time or if the US Dollar and the $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $AUDUSD or $NZDUSD are both entering the opposite coloured zones then the probability of the setup working out is highest.
SHADED GREEN ZONES = Strong Buy Zones
SHADED RED ZONES = Strong Sell Zones
Markets Overview (The Big Picture):
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
--> $USD in in Weekly Supply, and also RSI showing Negative Divergence. Also Gold has hit higher time frame demand so should be heading upwards as well.
$USD Overview (Daily Chart)
--> Daily chart showing negative divergence as well.
Currencies:
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The Million Dollar Strategy:
Chart Setup --> Chart has an 89 period EMA and an 8 period EMA, RSI indicator of 60 overbought and 40 oversold.
Buying or Selling when price enters a 240 minute area of demand/supply outlined by the green zone/red zone. First target will be opposing 240 min supply zone/demand zone and the opposing daily or weekly supply zone/demand zone.
Increased <== LONG -> 54k SHORT -> 32K ==> Increased
Notes: Price is setting up here for a drop IMO. Oil at the same time is hitting higher time frame demand causing prices to head upwards. The $USD is also within higher time frame supply.
$AUDUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased. (11/11/14)
Increased <== LONG -> 12k SHORT -> 50K ==> Decreased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: The Aussie hit weekly demand that is not authentic but fresh so this level should not hold. Now consolidating sideways and then should drop and break through the weekly demand zone area and head to at least daily demand at 0.84000.
THE SETUP ==>
Video Link ==>
Notes: The Aussie hit weekly demand that is not authentic but fresh so this level should not hold. Now consolidating sideways and then should drop and break through the weekly demand zone area and head to at least daily demand at 0.84000.
Increased <== LONG -> 31k SHORT -> 8K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Price is consolidating up at the highs. Waiting for a direction to go.
Notes: Price is consolidating up at the highs. Waiting for a direction to go.
Increased <== LONG -> 60k SHORT -> 224K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Price hit weekly demand at 1.24's and now we could start seeing a move to the upside.
THE SETUP ==>
Video Link ==>
Notes: Price hit weekly demand at 1.24's and now we could start seeing a move to the upside.
Video Link ==>
Decreased <== LONG -> 40k SHORT -> 53K ==> Increased
Notes: The pound has just breached the Monthly demand zone but hit weekly demand. I believe we will see a bounce from here.
Nov 14 -> Trade Activated.
Nov 14 -> T1 Hit
Nov 16 -> Added to my position @ 1.5640 (new targets outlined below)
$USDJPY -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased. (11/11/14)Increased <== LONG -> 129k SHORT -> 47K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Hit some weekly supply and I am expecting some downwards movement.
Increased <== LONG -> 9k SHORT -> 10K ==> Decreased
Notes: Price is consolidating around weekly demand. Also just hit some daily demand so we may see more upside.
Futures:
The 30 Minute Chart Strategy:
Chart Setup --> Chart has an 89 period EMA and an 8 period EMA, RSI indicator of 60 overbought and 40 oversold.
Buying or Selling when price enters a 30 minute area of demand/supply outlined by the green zone/red zone. First target will be opposing 30 min supply zone/demand zone.
The 240 Minute Chart Strategy: Buying or Selling when price enters a 240 minute area of demand/supply outlined by the green zone/red zone. First target will be opposing 240 min supply zone/demand zone.
Institutional Supply & Demand Outlook.
Institutional Supply & Demand Outlook.
Institutional Supply & Demand Outlook.
Institutional Supply & Demand Outlook.
$AUDUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased. (11/11/14)
Increased <== LONG -> 12k SHORT -> 50K ==> Decreased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: The Aussie hit weekly demand that is not authentic but fresh so this level should not hold. Now consolidating sideways and then should drop and break through the weekly demand zone area and head to at least daily demand at 0.84000.
THE SETUP ==> Short @ 0.8790, SL @ 0.8811, T1 - 0.8707, T2 - 0.8635
Video Link ==> THE SETUP
Nov 17 -> Trade Activated.
Nov 17 -> 1rst target moved to 0.8731 (may get a bounce from here)
Nov 17 -> target 1 hit over night.
Nov 17 -> closed trade for profits @ 0.87195
Trade Review -> Click 2 Review
Notes: The Aussie hit weekly demand that is not authentic but fresh so this level should not hold. Now consolidating sideways and then should drop and break through the weekly demand zone area and head to at least daily demand at 0.84000.
Nov 17 -> Trade Activated.
Nov 17 -> 1rst target moved to 0.8731 (may get a bounce from here)
Nov 17 -> target 1 hit over night.
Nov 17 -> closed trade for profits @ 0.87195
Trade Review -> Click 2 Review
$NZDUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are SHORT biased. (11/04/14)
Increased <== LONG -> 9k SHORT -> 13K ==> Increased
Notes: Price is consolidating around weekly demand. Also just hit some daily demand so we may see more upside.
Nov 12 -> Trade Activated.
Nov 12 -> 10pm Trade Closed - stop hit
Increased <== LONG -> 43k SHORT -> 50K ==> Increased
Notes: The pound has just breached the Monthly demand zone but is falling into daily/240 demand. I think we will see a bounce from here.
Nov 13 -> stopped out
Increased <== LONG -> 43k SHORT -> 50K ==> Increased
Notes: The pound has just breached the Monthly demand zone but is falling into daily/240 demand. I think we will see a bounce from here.
Nov 7 -> Trade Activated
Nov 10 -> Trade Closed
Trade Review -> Click 2 Review
Decreased <== LONG -> 109k SHORT -> 39K ==> Decreased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Hit some weekly supply and dropped and hit daily/weekly demand, now price is heading back up but right into weekly supply at 109.01 - 110.08. RSI will show negative divergence when price gets up there so we could see more downside towards weekly demand at 104.46. Institutions took profits on their long position at the 110.000 area as per COT Report.
Nov 10 -> Trade Activated
Nov 10 -> 11:35pm Stop Hit.
Trade Review -> Click 2 Review
Increased <== LONG -> 27k SHORT -> 6K ==> Decreased
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Price just hit daily demand and is heading higher, if 0.95927 break then I think we will see 0.98's and higher.
Notes: Price just hit daily demand and is heading higher, if 0.95927 break then I think we will see 0.98's and higher.
Oct 30 -> Trade Activated
Nov 3 -> Looking to add to my position @ 0.95970
Nov 4 -> Added to my position and moved my stop up.
Nov 5 -> Took some profits @ 0.9655, moved stop to 0.9610
Nov 6 -> Stop hit, Trade Closed.
Review ==> Click 2 Review
Decreased <== LONG -> 59k SHORT -> 224K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Weekly RBR demand hit and price went higher towards daily/weekly supply. Now it is dropping toward weekly demand at 1.24's.
THE SETUP ==> Short @ 1.2598, SL @ 1.2526, (T1 - 1.2527 hit), T2 - 1.2367
Video Link ==> THE SETUP
Oct 30 -> Trade Activated
Nov 2 7:45pm -> Target 1 hit
Nov 3 -> Looking to add to my position @ 1.25670
Nov 4 -> added to my short position @ 1.2567, moved stop lower at 1.2595
Nov 5 -> Took some profits @ 1.2474, moved stop to 1.2526
Nov 6 -> Stop hit, Trade Closed.
Review ==> Click 2 Review
Notes: Weekly RBR demand hit and price went higher towards daily/weekly supply. Now it is dropping toward weekly demand at 1.24's.
Video Link ==> THE SETUPOct 30 -> Trade Activated
Nov 2 7:45pm -> Target 1 hit
Nov 3 -> Looking to add to my position @ 1.25670
Nov 4 -> added to my short position @ 1.2567, moved stop lower at 1.2595
Nov 5 -> Took some profits @ 1.2474, moved stop to 1.2526
Nov 6 -> Stop hit, Trade Closed.
Review ==> Click 2 Review
Great video to watch -> Will help you in your trading psychology!
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