Friday, November 7, 2014

***Saturday November 8th*** CFTC COT Report is out... $USDJPY short here we come!!! ***PORTFOLIO -> $GBPUSD ***REVIEW -> $USDCHF $EURUSD


General Notes:
The Magic Portfolio was on point this week, calling out the direction of the $USD, $CAD, $JPY and $GBP among others. Some subscibers to the blog communicated to me that they profited from the info supplied by the portfolio, so congrats. Also great feedback regarding the Youtube channel and the videos I've been posting. I will definitely continue making the videos as they've been fun to do and you guys seem to find them very useful. Look forward to seeing more videos breaking down my strategy as well. The CFTC COT Report came out on Friday and the results are in. Institutions although still massively Long the $USDJPY, their Short positions went up a staggering 169% giving validity to the idea of seeing a drop in the pair. Their $AUDUSD positions have become less Long and therefore more net Short. Institutions also added to their Short positions on the $EURUSD. Take a look at the currency sections below for the breakdown. I've included last weeks data for a comparison.
Yes, finally, I started my YouTube channel, where i will be posting my thoughts and analysis on the FOREX currency pairs. No, it's not another analysis video, using regular technical analysis thats wrong more often than not, this is Supply & Demand baby, this is where the institutions have Buy and Sell orders. This is the real deal technical analysis!



Market Movers November 10 - 14th:
Click here for the Week Ahead -> Nov 10 - 14, 2014 Market Movers

The Magic Trading Portfolio's Position Sizing:
Currencies --> Risking only $100 per trade. As my risk tolerance gets larger, I will slowly start increasing my risk amount. This is how you become a consistently profitable trader.

You can follow, learn & PROFIT from The Magic Portfolio by following the members only @MagicAlerts on Twitter. I'll be sharing my thoughts on the markets, providing video lessons on trading Supply & Demand and also be sharing with followers some very exclusive stuff. You'll have to follow to find out what. I am mapping out Institutional Demand & Supply. Do your own DD and use the info whatever way you see fit. Welcome to The Magic Trading Portfolio!

How to keep updated with the blog? I tweet updates to The Magic Trading Portfolio all day live, my advice is if you have an iphone etc, turn notifications on for my account @magikev to get the updates to the portfolio. If you missed an update, just come to the blog and check on the right side where the twitter feed is located and go through the feed to see what updates you may have missed. Otherwise, subscribe to the email updates and receive them in your inbox.

Magic Ingredient:
If there is any one thing that has added more to my success than anything else, it is understanding how important it is to time the market with your trades. The key to my strategy is to time the $USD's GREEN and RED zones with the GREEN and RED zones from the setups. If the US Dollar and the $USDCAD, $USDCHF or $USDJPY are both entering their same coloured zones at around the same time or if the US Dollar and the $EURUSD, $GBPUSD, $AUDUSD or $NZDUSD are both entering the opposite coloured zones then the probability of the setup working out is highest. 
SHADED GREEN ZONES = Strong Buy Zones
SHADED RED ZONES = Strong Sell Zones

Markets Overview (The Big Picture):
Take note of the GREEN demand zones and RED supply zones mapped out below. These are the areas of interest for me because this is where there is a great deal of demand to fill buy orders and supply to fill sell orders from the institutions. 
$USD Overview (Weekly Chart)
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH => NUETRAL
--> $USD in in Weekly Supply, and also RSI showing Negative Divergence. Also Gold has hit higher time frame demand so should be heading upwards as well.

$USD Overview (Daily Chart)
--> We are off to the races here folks with more upside expected.

Currencies:

The Million Dollar Strategy:

Chart Setup --> Chart has an 89 period EMA and an 8 period EMA, RSI indicator of 60 overbought and 40 oversold.
Buying or Selling when price enters a 240 minute area of demand/supply outlined by the green zone/red zone. First target will be opposing 240 min supply zone/demand zone and the opposing daily or weekly supply zone/demand zone.



$USDCAD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased. (11/04/14)
Increased <== LONG -> 49k   SHORT -> 29K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Price is setting up here for a drop IMO. Oil at the same time is hitting higher time frame demand causing prices to head upwards. The $USD is also within higher time frame supply.
THE SETUP ==> 
Video Link ==> THE SETUP

$AUDUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased. (11/04/14)
Decreased <== LONG -> 14k   SHORT -> 52K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: The Aussie hit weekly demand that is not authentic but fresh so this level should not hold. Now consolidating sideways and then should drop and break through the weekly demand zone area and head to at least daily demand at 0.84000.
THE SETUP ==> 
Video Link ==>

$USDCHF -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased. (11/04/14)
Increased <== LONG -> 28k   SHORT -> 7K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Price just hit daily demand and is heading higher, if 0.95927 break then I think we will see 0.98's and higher. 
THE SETUP ==>
Video Link ==> 

$EURUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased. (11/04/14)
Same <== LONG -> 59k   SHORT -> 238K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Weekly RBR demand hit and price went higher towards daily/weekly supply.  Now it is dropping toward weekly demand at 1.24's.
THE SETUP ==> 
Video Link ==>

$GBPUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are SHORT biased. (11/04/14)
Increased <== LONG -> 43k   SHORT -> 50K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH => NEUTRAL
Notes: The pound has just breached the Monthly demand zone but is falling into daily/240 demand. I think we will see a bounce from here.
THE SETUP ==> Long @ 1.5819, SL @ 1.5769, T1 - 1.5961
Video Link ==>
Nov 7 -> Trade Activated
$USDJPY -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased. (11/04/14)
             Decreased <== LONG -> 109k   SHORT -> 39K ==> Decreased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Hit some weekly supply and dropped and hit daily/weekly demand, now price is heading back up but right into weekly supply at 109.01 - 110.08. RSI will show negative divergence when price gets up there so we could see more downside towards weekly demand at 104.46. Institutions took profits on their long position at the 110.000 area as per COT Report.
THE SETUP ==> 
Video Link ==> THE SETUP

$NZDUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are SHORT biased. (11/04/14)
Increased <== LONG -> 9k   SHORT -> 13K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Notes: Price came within pips of the weekly supply and then dropped towards the weekly demand. May get a bounce creating a higher RSI and then back up toward weekly supply.
THE SETUP ==> 
Video Link ==>



$USDCHF -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased. (10/28/14)
Increased <== LONG -> 27k   SHORT -> 6K ==> Decreased
Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes: Price just hit daily demand and is heading higher, if 0.95927 break then I think we will see 0.98's and higher. 
THE SETUP ==> Long @ 0.9555, SL @ 0.9575, T1 - 0.9752, T2 - 9855
Video Link ==> THE SETUP
Oct 30 -> Trade Activated
Nov 3 -> Looking to add to my position @ 0.95970
Nov 4 -> Added to my position and moved my stop up.
Nov 5 -> Took some profits @ 0.9655, moved stop to 0.9610
Nov 6 -> Stop hit, Trade Closed.
Review ==> Click 2 Review

$EURUSD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased. (10/28/14)
Decreased <== LONG -> 59k   SHORT -> 224K ==> Increased
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Weekly RBR demand hit and price went higher towards daily/weekly supply.  Now it is dropping toward weekly demand at 1.24's.
THE SETUP ==> Short @ 1.2598, SL @ 1.2526, (T1 - 1.2527 hit), T2 - 1.2367
Video Link ==> THE SETUP
Oct 30 -> Trade Activated
Nov 2 7:45pm -> Target 1 hit
Nov 3 -> Looking to add to my position @ 1.25670
Nov 4 -> added to my short position @ 1.2567, moved stop lower at 1.2595
Nov 5 -> Took some profits @ 1.2474, moved stop to 1.2526
Nov 6 -> Stop hit, Trade Closed.
Review ==> Click 2 Review


Institutional SUPPLY & DEMAND with Sam Seiden (November 7, 2014)
Click 2 Play

Great video to watch -> Will help you in your trading psychology!
                                                                    Click link to watch!








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