SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONES
Take note of the GREEN demand zones and RED supply zones mapped out below. These are the areas of interest for me because this is where there is a great deal of demand to fill buy orders and supply to fill sell orders from the institutions. SHADED GREEN ZONES = Strong Buy Zones
SHADED RED ZONES = Strong Sell Zones
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
US DOLLAR => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Notes: as indicated with the two red down arrows, we can see that the hedge funds slightly reduced their USD long and short positions, nothing major, was either profit taking within consolidation or reducing risk. Total positions long still sit at 89% of the portfolio.
AUDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NEUTRAL
Notes: The Hedge Funds again added to their short positions, this time from 93k to 97k and again reduced their longs from 52k to 46k (arrow on chart should point down...oops!) This came as we saw price hit an inherited WK DZ that is badly formed. With Oil dropping in price, it was becoming very clear that AUDUSD shorts were the way to go. Earlier this morning the AUD interest rate decision was released at 2% which spiked price from the WK INH (inherited) DZ upwards. Interesting thing here is that OIL has created a WK WOW long setup off a MN DZ, which could send price back upwards, so I'll be keeping this in mind during the next few weeks.
USDCAD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NEUTRAL
Notes: The Hedge Funds are again adding heavily to their longs from 85k to 91k and reduced their shorts from 41k to 35k, this again comes as we saw OIL drop D/WK supply in the 60's towards the 44's. Right into a nice WK WOW DZ created off MN demand, as mentioned above. The USDCAD is sitting within tested WK/MN supply at the moment so although the Big Boys are adding massively to their long positions, I will be cautious and will be waiting for OIL to play out and for USDCAD HTF supply to be taken out before I get too excited about longing some. Otherwise, if OIL rallies and USDCAD HTF supply is respected, a possible trend reversal could be starting here. Just a thought!
USDCHF => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: The Hedge Funds added to their longs again from 6.4k to 9.6k and in doing so brought their total long exposure from 40% to 50%. This comes as we saw the USD gain in strength as well. Seems that the WK SZ is getting weaker but has not yet broken.
EURUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: The Hedge Funds added to their longs again from 65k to 67k and dropped their shorts from 178k to 171k. Total short exposure dropped from 73% to 72% of portfolio. Still a short bias but we continue to see consolidation on the WK chart. Nothing clear to trade at the moment, so still waiting.
GBPUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Notes: The Hedge Funds increased their longs massively from 35k to 43k while reducing their shorts from 56k to 53k. In doing so, they shifted their total long exposure from 38% to 45%. A bullish stance indeed and we continue to see consolidation on the WK chart. Seems we are seeing an accumulation of a long position on the Pound by the Hedge Funds here, will continue to watch the numbers and price action for confirmation to go long.
USDJPY => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: The Hedge Funds reduced their longs from 113k to 190k and also their shorts from 50k to 46k and in doing so changed their total long exposure from 69% to 70%, up 1 percentage point. This comes as we have seen price action pretty much go sideways after hitting tested WK supply. Both MN and WK supply are both used up so a continued move to the upside could easily happen here once the markets begin to move again.
NZDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: The Hedge Funds increased their longs from 13.2k to 13.5k but reduced their shorts from 29k to 26k. This comes as we saw price reacting from a MN CP DZ, so filling in some of their long positions and closing some of their short positions.
Now we enter the month of August, which has been typically known for being a "slow" month for trading, as many traders go on vacation and spend time relaxing and bathing in the sun. Alfonso, as we all know, has also taken this time to spend the entire month in Thailand (no coincidence here) and so this is an indication for us to be very careful in opening up positions this month because what typically happens is the institutions will close out open positions leading into their vacations and there cause some counter trend movements in price that may or may not respect previous zones. As we can see in the charts, the majors are sitting at HTF zones that have the potential of causing the counter trend moves leading into the first week of the month, so with that being said, some aggressive CT trades can be taken with close stops. Otherwise, the only pairs with aggressive positions from the Hedge Funds in clear trends are the USD long, AUDUSD short, USDCAD long, USDCHF long, possibly the GBPUSD long and the USDJPY long. I will be watching these pairs closely as well as my current long position on the USDJPY for a continuation of trend and if that doesn't seem to happen, I'll prepare myself for some counter trend moves.
So be aware and cautious my friends and always follow the rules!
Kevin
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Notes: as indicated with the two red down arrows, we can see that the hedge funds slightly reduced their USD long and short positions, nothing major, was either profit taking within consolidation or reducing risk. Total positions long still sit at 89% of the portfolio.
AUDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NEUTRAL
Notes: The Hedge Funds again added to their short positions, this time from 93k to 97k and again reduced their longs from 52k to 46k (arrow on chart should point down...oops!) This came as we saw price hit an inherited WK DZ that is badly formed. With Oil dropping in price, it was becoming very clear that AUDUSD shorts were the way to go. Earlier this morning the AUD interest rate decision was released at 2% which spiked price from the WK INH (inherited) DZ upwards. Interesting thing here is that OIL has created a WK WOW long setup off a MN DZ, which could send price back upwards, so I'll be keeping this in mind during the next few weeks.
USDCAD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: NEUTRAL
Notes: The Hedge Funds are again adding heavily to their longs from 85k to 91k and reduced their shorts from 41k to 35k, this again comes as we saw OIL drop D/WK supply in the 60's towards the 44's. Right into a nice WK WOW DZ created off MN demand, as mentioned above. The USDCAD is sitting within tested WK/MN supply at the moment so although the Big Boys are adding massively to their long positions, I will be cautious and will be waiting for OIL to play out and for USDCAD HTF supply to be taken out before I get too excited about longing some. Otherwise, if OIL rallies and USDCAD HTF supply is respected, a possible trend reversal could be starting here. Just a thought!
USDCHF => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: The Hedge Funds added to their longs again from 6.4k to 9.6k and in doing so brought their total long exposure from 40% to 50%. This comes as we saw the USD gain in strength as well. Seems that the WK SZ is getting weaker but has not yet broken.
EURUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: The Hedge Funds added to their longs again from 65k to 67k and dropped their shorts from 178k to 171k. Total short exposure dropped from 73% to 72% of portfolio. Still a short bias but we continue to see consolidation on the WK chart. Nothing clear to trade at the moment, so still waiting.
GBPUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: HAWKISH
Notes: The Hedge Funds increased their longs massively from 35k to 43k while reducing their shorts from 56k to 53k. In doing so, they shifted their total long exposure from 38% to 45%. A bullish stance indeed and we continue to see consolidation on the WK chart. Seems we are seeing an accumulation of a long position on the Pound by the Hedge Funds here, will continue to watch the numbers and price action for confirmation to go long.
USDJPY => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISH
Notes: The Hedge Funds reduced their longs from 113k to 190k and also their shorts from 50k to 46k and in doing so changed their total long exposure from 69% to 70%, up 1 percentage point. This comes as we have seen price action pretty much go sideways after hitting tested WK supply. Both MN and WK supply are both used up so a continued move to the upside could easily happen here once the markets begin to move again.
NZDUSD => COT REPORT: Institutional traders are SHORT biased.
Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: The Hedge Funds increased their longs from 13.2k to 13.5k but reduced their shorts from 29k to 26k. This comes as we saw price reacting from a MN CP DZ, so filling in some of their long positions and closing some of their short positions.
Now we enter the month of August, which has been typically known for being a "slow" month for trading, as many traders go on vacation and spend time relaxing and bathing in the sun. Alfonso, as we all know, has also taken this time to spend the entire month in Thailand (no coincidence here) and so this is an indication for us to be very careful in opening up positions this month because what typically happens is the institutions will close out open positions leading into their vacations and there cause some counter trend movements in price that may or may not respect previous zones. As we can see in the charts, the majors are sitting at HTF zones that have the potential of causing the counter trend moves leading into the first week of the month, so with that being said, some aggressive CT trades can be taken with close stops. Otherwise, the only pairs with aggressive positions from the Hedge Funds in clear trends are the USD long, AUDUSD short, USDCAD long, USDCHF long, possibly the GBPUSD long and the USDJPY long. I will be watching these pairs closely as well as my current long position on the USDJPY for a continuation of trend and if that doesn't seem to happen, I'll prepare myself for some counter trend moves.
So be aware and cautious my friends and always follow the rules!
Kevin
AUDUSD -> Commitmen Of Traders Report: Institutional traders
are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes:
THE SETUP: ->
Video Link ==>
$USDCAD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders
are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes:
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP: ->
$USDCAD -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional tradersare SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: NUETRAL
Notes:
$USDCHF -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are SHORT biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: DOVISH
Notes: Trend is up on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and down trend on the daily chart.
THE SETUP:
THE SETUP:
Notes:
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Notes:
THE SETUP:
THE SETUP:
$USDJPY -> Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased. Perception of Monetary Standing: VERY DOVISHNotes:
THE SETUP:
Notes:
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==> 
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bullish consolidation on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart. Called the bounce @ 1170 to a tee. RSI on the MN and WK chart suggest more upside towards the 1280's.
THE SETUP:
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and up on the daily chart. A little more push up it seems until hitting MN supply and descending TL so expecting more downside from there.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY LONG biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, up on the weekly and up on the daily chart. WK chart hitting a flip zone so may drop to the 56's, if not head up towards the 66's.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Commitment Of Traders Report: Institutional traders are VERY SHORT biased.
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, bearish consolidation on the weekly and up on the daily chart. MN descending TL about to be hit while WK supply being tested a second time with D supply up ahead.
THE SETUP:
Video Link ==>
Notes: Trend is down on the monthly, down on the weekly and bearish consolidation on the daily chart.
*WK SZ and WK TL in control
*WK SZ and WK TL in control
THE SETUP: LONG @ 0.7365, SL @ 0.7306, TP - technical stop
Video Link ==>
May 18 (10:15pm) -> Trade Activated.
May 20 (9:30am) -> Trade Closed early for small loss.
Trade Review -> https://www.tradebench.com/share_trade/c09da628ffcf32f27aaae7ac4f6a29f1
May 18 (10:15pm) -> Trade Activated.
May 20 (9:30am) -> Trade Closed early for small loss.
Trade Review -> https://www.tradebench.com/share_trade/c09da628ffcf32f27aaae7ac4f6a29f1
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